Rising Debt and its Potential Consequences: Canada’s New Normal?

We need to understand where we are in the debt super cycle to inform our investment decision making.

Artificial Intelligence: The Return of The Centaurs

Recent AI breakthroughs are underscoring the power of the centaur model—humans + machines—creating something more potent than either model operating independently.

The Case for Non-Predictive Decision Making

In our view, market participants systematically underestimate the importance of vulnerabilities while correspondingly overestimating the importance of triggers. Why?

Inflation’s One-Two Punch

It’s inflation’s second punch that can deliver a blow that investors may not be expecting.

‘Twas the week before Christmas

'Twas the week before Christmas, thus time to review—the economic story of 2022.

Beware the linearity bias

We tend to think of our world in linear terms, where the output of a system is proportional and directly correlated to its inputs.

The quality conundrum

The conundrum for investors these days is the trade-off between the value of quality and price to pay for it. 

Be aware, but don’t despair!

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

~Mark Twain

'Twas the week before Christmas

‘Twas the week before Christmas, so let's have some fun. Mawer recaps the main themes of 2021.

Prepare don't predict

How an engineering principle can improve investment risk management.

On modern monetary theory

We explore the evolution of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and the notable economic ideas on which it is based. We highlight some notable criticisms and discuss implications of MMT for economic policy and financial markets. Our purpose is less focused on opining whether MMT is fundamentally sound, but rather aimed at understanding its development and how the ground may shift if indeed MMT-based policies are more widely embraced.

Where I’m seeing value in emerging markets

I’ve been revisiting Philip Fisher’s Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits recently. Scanning the opportunity set in emerging markets, I’ve been trying to imagine what Fisher would have made of the current investment landscape.

'Twas the week before Christmas

‘Twas the week before Christmas, (and you know it’s true), COVID looms large in our annual review.

U.S. Mid Cap Equities: Tech, Regional Banks, and Valuation | EP140

A look at the strategy a year on and why we think valuation should be more top of mind for investors.

Global Equities: Scuttlebutt, Reverse Roadshows, and Bathroom Lists | EP139

How we approach finding new ideas in the widest investment universe.

Vulnerabilities vs. Triggers | EP138

Unpacking one of our key mental models around investing and managing risk.

Quarterly Update | Q2 2023 | EP137

Market drivers that stood out this quarter, where inflation is at, and an asset mix update.

International Equities: Insights from the Road | EP136

Top highlights from the team’s recent research trips and a few business models we’re excited about.

Global Small Caps, Engaged Owners, and Reverse Roadshows | EP135

A deep dive into key themes we’ve been focusing on, recent additions to the portfolio, and a few changes.

U.S. Equities: ChatGPT, Banks, and Earnings | EP134

Why management teams matter, energy companies rarely meet our investment criteria, and JPMorgan and State Street differ from many regional banks. 

The Epistemology of Investing: A Near Insurmountable Challenge | EP133

Why genuine knowledge building and the ability to learn effectively in investing is difficult, and how we try to work around those challenges.

Quarterly Update | Q1 2023 | EP132

The major themes of the quarter, where we are in the interest rate hike cycle, and our thoughts on the recent banking crisis.

Canadian Small Caps, Energy, Risk Management, and Assessing Management Teams | EP131

This episode, we discuss our seven-point management assessment framework (with examples), our risk management approach, and overall thoughts on energy.

Emerging Markets: What happened in 2022, and where are we at? | EP130

Digging into last year’s performance drivers, the current opportunity set, and benefits of resuming boots-on-the-ground research.

Inflation’s One-Two Punch | EP129

The nuanced impacts of inflation to companies’ balance sheets that investors might be missing.

Post-Mortem: Learnings from 2022 | EP128

Chief Investment Officer Paul Moroz shares takeaways from the Research team's annual post-mortem discussions.