Rising Debt and its Potential Consequences: Canada’s New Normal?

We need to understand where we are in the debt super cycle to inform our investment decision making.

Artificial Intelligence: The Return of The Centaurs

Recent AI breakthroughs are underscoring the power of the centaur model—humans + machines—creating something more potent than either model operating independently.

The Case for Non-Predictive Decision Making

In our view, market participants systematically underestimate the importance of vulnerabilities while correspondingly overestimating the importance of triggers. Why?

Inflation’s One-Two Punch

It’s inflation’s second punch that can deliver a blow that investors may not be expecting.

‘Twas the week before Christmas

'Twas the week before Christmas, thus time to review—the economic story of 2022.

Beware the linearity bias

We tend to think of our world in linear terms, where the output of a system is proportional and directly correlated to its inputs.

The quality conundrum

The conundrum for investors these days is the trade-off between the value of quality and price to pay for it. 

Be aware, but don’t despair!

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

~Mark Twain

'Twas the week before Christmas

‘Twas the week before Christmas, so let's have some fun. Mawer recaps the main themes of 2021.

Prepare don't predict

How an engineering principle can improve investment risk management.

On modern monetary theory

We explore the evolution of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and the notable economic ideas on which it is based. We highlight some notable criticisms and discuss implications of MMT for economic policy and financial markets. Our purpose is less focused on opining whether MMT is fundamentally sound, but rather aimed at understanding its development and how the ground may shift if indeed MMT-based policies are more widely embraced.

Where I’m seeing value in emerging markets

I’ve been revisiting Philip Fisher’s Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits recently. Scanning the opportunity set in emerging markets, I’ve been trying to imagine what Fisher would have made of the current investment landscape.

'Twas the week before Christmas

‘Twas the week before Christmas, (and you know it’s true), COVID looms large in our annual review.

U.S. Equities: ChatGPT, Banks, and Earnings | EP134

Why management teams matter, energy companies rarely meet our investment criteria, and JPMorgan and State Street differ from many regional banks. 

The Epistemology of Investing: A Near Insurmountable Challenge | EP133

Why genuine knowledge building and the ability to learn effectively in investing is difficult, and how we try to work around those challenges.

Quarterly Update | Q1 2023 | EP132

The major themes of the quarter, where we are in the interest rate hike cycle, and our thoughts on the recent banking crisis.

Canadian Small Caps, Energy, Risk Management, and Assessing Management Teams | EP131

This episode, we discuss our seven-point management assessment framework (with examples), our risk management approach, and overall thoughts on energy.

Emerging Markets: What happened in 2022, and where are we at? | EP130

Digging into last year’s performance drivers, the current opportunity set, and benefits of resuming boots-on-the-ground research.

Inflation’s One-Two Punch | EP129

The nuanced impacts of inflation to companies’ balance sheets that investors might be missing.

Post-Mortem: Learnings from 2022 | EP128

Chief Investment Officer Paul Moroz shares takeaways from the Research team's annual post-mortem discussions.

Is the 60/40 Portfolio Dead? And more fixed income questions answered | EP127

Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin walks listeners through the tumultuous bond market experiences of 2022 and outlines three main economic scenarios the team is monitoring for 2023.

Europe, Energy, ESG: Observations from the road | EP126

Some of the main challenges facing the continent, what we gleaned from visiting over 45 companies, and ESG considerations that are front of mind for major European investment firms.

Quarterly Update | Q4 2022 | EP125

A review of last quarter, the major themes and takeaways from 2022, and what’s on the horizon for the new year.

S-Curves and the Adoption Cycle | EP124

What investors can learn from the S-curves of technologies both old and new.

Playing the plan: Mawer’s Canadian equity portfolio | EP123

What we think about the newly proposed tax on share buybacks in Canada, a balanced take on the energy theme, and where we’ve trimmed, exited, and added in the portfolio.

The art of discount rates | EP122

How do investors figure out what a company is worth? (Especially in a higher inflationary and interest rate environment?)